Estimation of Future Energy Demands for Rural Off-Grid: A Methodology
Abstract
The economic viability of hybrid energy systems depends on accurate electrical load estimate and forecasts among
other factors. Since, off-grid power system usually operates beyond ten years, it will not be normal to consider the
static estimate of the total energy demand. This paper presents an approach for the formulation of hourly load profile
using bottom up approach and long-term electric power load forecasting using end use model for off-grid rural
communities. The study focuses precisely on the formulation of daily load profiles and forecasts by considering
standby power consumption for rural off-grid which has not been considered when formulating load profiles for rural
areas in the previous study. The formulated procedure is used to formulate load profiles and ten years’ electrical energy forecast for a cluster of three rural communities located in Ifelodun Local Government Area of Kwara State, Nigeria. To study the shape of the load pattern for a typical rural household, FLUKE 434-SERIES II ENERGY ANALYZER was used to measure hourly energy consumption of a typical rural household that is connected to the grid for 8 days with a 1hour time step. Multiple regression analysis was carried out to investigate the various factors that can
influence the increase in electricity consumption by a rural household using Pearson correlation and Minitab 18 statistical software. The results demonstrate successful ten-year load forecast with the annual maximum demand in the first year estimated as 54.12 kW and 63.90 kW in the tenth year.
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