Developing Bimodal Choice Functions for Lagos Urban Transportation System using Hybrid Technique

Abstract

Lagos Metropolis has been known for traffic congestion over the years. This chaotic traffic system brings
about financial and man-hour losses. The situation requires the introduction of alternative modes of
transportation such as the waterway. However, no adequate research attention has been given to the
system. Therefore, this study investigates the parameters that influence commuters preferences for the
bimodal transportation options. The identified parameters based on literature are integrated using fuzzy
logic, logistic regression and bathymetric information in order to address the modal-choice complexity and
navigability through the waterways. In addition, survey-based data has been utilized to assess the
socioeconomic characteristics of littoral residents from Ikorodu Town to Lagos Island. Data acquired was
supplied into the binary logit model from, which the probability of modal choice preference was
determined. Results show that travel time, travel cost, vehicle capacity, traffic safety and income influence
the choice of commuters in Lagos Metropolis. The significance of these five parameters was determined
at 95 % confidence interval. Increase in cumulative cost of travel leads to decrease in probability of the
modal choice. Furthermore, the use of high capacity ferry services coupled with reduced travel cost on
waterway leads to reduction in commuters plying the roads; hence, resulting in considerable reduction of
traffic congestion in Lagos Metropolis.